What I am expecting to happen:
The schism will eventually become a break. Those who ratified the Constitution will continue here while those who refused will recognize the futilty of attempting to make change from within and eventually move to create something of their own.
Due to lack of ability to generate funds by those that split, they are unlikely to ever get even so much as a satellite in orbit. As such, they will have a great many ideas, perhaps even plans, maybe even going so far as to designs, but eventually not actually accomplishing anything.
Asgardia, will likely launch their satellite, petition the UN for nation status, but ultimately be denied on the basis that their Constitution is invalid, they didn't have the popular support of even half their population (in fact, many actually left because they were unable to vote no on the Constitution), and they are not behaving as a nation, but only a political group that spans across countries. This all assumes that everyone is being honest about not trying to coax or elicit resources from Asgardians also.
Thus, in the end, the project will fail, all because of bad communications. The same thing that destroys families and friendships will destroy a wanna-be nation.