3I/ATLAS Follow-Up: What We Know, What We're Testing, What You Can Do **Author: Dean Bordokas, Citizen Contributor, Asgardia** **Date: 18 December 2025** --- Yesterday we published an analysis exploring whether interstellar object 3I/ATLAS might be technological rather than natural. The response has been immediate and divided—some excited, some skeptical, many ...
3I/ATLAS Follow-Up: What We Know, What We're Testing, What You Can Do
**Author: Dean Bordokas, Citizen Contributor, Asgardia**
**Date: 18 December 2025**
---
Yesterday we published an analysis exploring whether interstellar object 3I/ATLAS might be technological rather than natural. The response has been immediate and divided—some excited, some skeptical, many asking: "What do we actually know for certain?"
This follow-up separates confirmed observations from hypotheses, explains why the technological scenario remains scientifically valid (even if unlikely), and provides practical guidance for Asgardians who want to contribute real data.
---
WHAT WE KNOW FOR CERTAIN
**Observational Facts (peer-reviewed or agency-confirmed):**
1. **3I/ATLAS is real and interstellar**
Discovered July 2025, hyperbolic orbit confirms it originated outside our Solar System.
2. **Closest approach: 19 December 2025 at 1.80 AU**
That's 270 million kilometers—nowhere near Earth, completely safe.
3. **Unusually CO₂-rich**
JWST spectroscopy (August 2025) shows CO₂/H₂O ratio of ~8:1. This is unusual but not impossible—objects formed beyond the CO₂ ice line can be CO₂-dominated.
4. **X-ray emission confirmed**
Independent observations by JAXA (Nov 26-28) and ESA's XMM-Newton (Dec 3) detected X-ray emission extending ~400,000 km around the object.
5. **Sunward-enhanced outgassing**
Ground-based observations show asymmetric coma with brightness enhancement toward the Sun.
**Professional Consensus:**
The astronomical community attributes all observations to natural comet physics—CO₂ sublimation, solar wind charge-exchange producing X-rays, typical behavior for a small interstellar comet viewed near pole-on geometry.
Russian astrophysicist Sergei Zamozdra summarized the mainstream view: "The object follows natural laws of physics. In a couple of months it will fly further away, and in six months everyone will forget about it."
---
WHY THE TECHNOLOGICAL HYPOTHESIS REMAINS VALID
**Not because we believe it's alien—but because dismissing anomalies too quickly has burned us before.**
The 'Oumuamua Lesson
In 2017, we detected our first interstellar visitor: 1I/'Oumuamua. Initial reaction: natural asteroid, case closed.
Then the anomalies piled up:
- Extreme elongation (10:1 axial ratio, unlike any known asteroid)
- Non-gravitational acceleration with no visible outgassing
- Tumbling motion inconsistent with typical asteroids
- Unusual brightness variations
Harvard astronomer Avi Loeb proposed we couldn't rule out artificial origin. The community largely dismissed this. 'Oumuamua is now gone forever—we'll never know for certain.
**The lesson:** When something is genuinely anomalous, we owe it to ourselves to collect the data that could resolve the question before the opportunity vanishes.
What Makes 3I/ATLAS Worth Tracking
Not because any single observation screams "alien," but because the *combination* of factors creates a pattern worth documenting:
- **Ecliptic alignment**: Orbit within ~1° of the Solar System plane (probability ~1/180)
- **CO₂ dominance**: 8:1 ratio is rare for comets (though explicable)
- **Persistent sunward jet**: Activity hasn't shut off as expected post-perihelion
- **Close approach**: 1.8 AU is closer than any previous interstellar object
- **X-ray emission**: Explained by SWCX, but also consistent with thruster exhaust interacting with solar wind
Multiply the independent probabilities and you get something rare enough to warrant careful observation—not proclamation, but observation.
---
THE FALSIFIABLE TESTS
This is where science separates itself from speculation. The technological hypothesis makes specific, testable predictions that differ from the natural model:
Test 1: X-ray Spectroscopy (Professional Observatories)
**Natural model predicts:**
H₂O-dominated charge-exchange → specific O⁷⁺/C⁶⁺ line ratios
**Technological model predicts:**
CO₂-dominated exhaust → enhanced C⁶⁺/O⁷⁺ ratios
**Who can do this:** Professional observatories with X-ray spectrographs
**Status:** XMM-Newton data exists; spectra should be publicly available in ~6 weeks
**Asgardia action:** None directly, but we can monitor when the spectra are released and analyze them
Test 2: Photometry Beyond 5 AU (Amateur + Professional)
**Natural model predicts:**
Brightness fades as ~5 log(r) — standard comet behavior as gas production drops with distance
**Technological model predicts:**
Steeper fade when CO₂ tank exhausts — sudden drop in brightness rate around 5-6 AU
**Who can do this:** Anyone with access to telescope time or archived images
**Status:** Object currently at ~1.9 AU, will reach 5 AU by mid-2026
**Asgardia action:** THIS IS WHERE WE CAN CONTRIBUTE (see below)
Test 3: Radar Ranging (Professional Only)
**Natural model predicts:**
Radar albedo consistent with icy/rocky body; mass/area ratio of ~1000 kg/m²
**Technological model predicts:**
Low radar albedo; mass/area ratio of ~10-100 kg/m² (thin shield + small bus)
**Who can do this:** Goldstone, Arecibo (currently non-operational), FAST
**Status:** Unknown if observations are planned
**Asgardia action:** We could petition observatories to add 3I/ATLAS to their schedules
---
WHAT ASGARDIANS CAN ACTUALLY DO
Priority 1: Long-Term Photometry Campaign
**The Goal:**
Track 3I/ATLAS brightness from now through late 2026 to detect any sudden change in fade rate.
**What You Need:**
- Access to telescope time (personal, university, or public archives)
- Basic photometry software (AstroImageJ, Siril, Python/Photutils)
- Patience—this is a months-long campaign
**Step-by-Step:**
1. **Acquire Images**
- Download FITS files from: Las Cumbres Observatory, Minor Planet Center, ATLAS, PAN-STARRS, ZTF
- Prefer V or r filters for consistency
- Note: Object is currently magnitude ~18, will fade to ~23 by late 2026
2. **Calibrate & Measure**
- Apply bias/dark/flat corrections
- Perform aperture photometry on 3I/ATLAS
- Record: UTC timestamp, magnitude, filter, uncertainty, seeing conditions
3. **Plot & Watch**
- Graph magnitude vs. heliocentric distance (r)
- Normal comet: slope = 5 (magnitude increases by 5 for each 10× distance increase)
- Anomaly: sudden steepening beyond 5 AU
4. **Document & Share**
- Post your light-curve data in the "3I/ATLAS Citizen Photometry" thread on Asgardia portal
- Include: your name, observatory, reduction method, nightly seeing
- Professional astronomers will incorporate well-documented amateur data into formal analyses
Priority 2: Monitor Professional Publications
**What to Watch For:**
- XMM-Newton spectroscopy results (expected ~late January 2026)
- Any radar observations by Goldstone or FAST
- Follow-up papers in ApJ, A&A, MNRAS discussing 3I/ATLAS
**Where to Look:**
- arXiv.org (astronomy section)
- NASA ADS (Astrophysics Data System)
- ESA and JAXA press releases
**Asgardia Action:**
If you spot relevant papers, post summaries to the Asgardia science forum
---
ADDRESSING THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
**"Isn't this just wishful thinking? Aren't we seeing what we want to see?"**
Fair question. Let's address it head-on.
If We're Wrong (Most Likely Scenario):
We will have:
- Extended the photometry baseline for a scientifically interesting interstellar comet
- Practiced rigorous data collection and Bayesian reasoning
- Demonstrated Asgardia's capacity for organized citizen science
- Lost nothing except some telescope time and spreadsheet hours
The professional community will appreciate the extra data points. CO₂-rich comets are rare; every measurement helps refine formation models.
If We're Right (Low Probability, High Impact):
We will have:
- Co-authored the first engineering constraints on an extraterrestrial spacecraft
- Contributed to humanity's first confirmed contact with alien technology
- Demonstrated that distributed citizen science can catch what centralized institutions miss
**The asymmetry is clear:** The cost of being wrong is negligible. The cost of not looking—and missing something real—is irreversible.
---
THE REAL POINT
This isn't about aliens. It's about epistemic humility.
Every time we've assumed "that's just normal X" without checking, we've been embarrassed:
- Pulsars ("obviously" instrumental noise)
- Exoplanets ("obviously" impossible around Sun-like stars)
- Gravitational waves ("obviously" too weak to detect)
The technological hypothesis for 3I/ATLAS is almost certainly wrong. But "almost certainly" is not the same as "proven."
**We have maybe 12 months before 3I/ATLAS fades below magnitude 23 and becomes unobservable by amateur equipment. After that, the data window closes forever.**
So let's do the science. Let's collect the photometry. Let's watch for that breakpoint.
And if nothing anomalous shows up? We'll have contributed real data to comet science and practiced thinking rigorously about low-probability, high-impact scenarios.
Either outcome beats wondering forever.
---
NEXT STEPS FOR ASGARDIA MEMBERS
**Immediate (This Week):**
1. If you have telescope access, begin imaging 3I/ATLAS now while it's still relatively bright (~mag 18)
2. Download archival data from Nov-Dec 2025 to establish baseline
3. Join the "3I/ATLAS Citizen Photometry" thread and introduce yourself
**Ongoing (Through 2026):**
1. Obtain at least one measurement per week if possible
2. Watch for the 5 AU crossing (expected ~May 2026)
3. Document any sudden changes in fade rate
**Long-Term:**
1. Monitor professional publications for X-ray spectroscopy results
2. Advocate for radar observations by submitting requests to Goldstone/FAST
3. Compile our collective data for submission to professional journals
---
FINAL THOUGHT
Russian scientist Sergei Zamozdra said "In six months, everyone will forget about it."
Maybe he's right. Maybe 3I/ATLAS is just an unusual but natural comet, and by summer 2026 it will be a footnote in comet catalogs.
But maybe—just maybe—forgetting about it would be the mistake.
Asgardia was founded on the principle that humanity's future lies in space. Part of that future is being prepared to recognize when something genuinely extraordinary passes through our cosmic neighborhood.
So let's not forget. Let's watch. Let's measure. Let's document.
And let's let the data decide.
Clear skies,
Dean Bordokas
Member, Asgardia Space Nation
---
For technical questions, post in the 3I/ATLAS forum thread. For observation coordination, contact the Asgardia Science Directorate at science@asgardia.space
