Jan 22, 17 / Aqu 22, 01 09:07 UTC
Re: Nuclear weapons and Asgardia ¶
Hi Valery Once again we are in substantial agreement :)
Re 3 Geopolitical Consequences. I have the same opinion that there is almost a zero chance that the major powers and probably minor Nations too, as most are aligned with the majors and vote according to the lead of their major ally ,will endorse any 3rd party to have nuclear weapons in space particularly if they have them exclusively even if it acquires Nation status at a later date. The only credible option I see is an International body for the control of a weapons platform similar to the ISS with China who is absent coming into the program. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PoliticsoftheInternationalSpace_Station Meanwhile major powers continue to weaponise space in their own National interest and the USA appears to want to maintain and increase it's dominace in this field using space debris and recently Near Earth object preparedfness as a justification the former being a more immediate problem that needs a solution
" The 2011 National Security Space Strategy declared, “Space is vital to U.S. national security and our ability to understand emerging threats, project power globally, conduct operations, support diplomatic efforts, and enable global economic viability.”
Maintaining the benefits afforded by space is central to a wide range of U.S. national interests" I cannot see them giving that up in favour of Asgardia or anyone else without a fight. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R43353.pdf
and recerntly as posted elsewhere on forum the USA appears to want to go solo on this despite it's calls for international co operation as I suspect they believe it is in the National interest , they will be the major source of funding and are ahead of the curve with a serious competitive advantage in this area so again It will be almost impossible to have them give that up in favour of 3rd parties https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-white-house-strategy-preps-earth-for-asteroid-hit-scenarios/
Re 2 Strategy I have read a number of articles that strongly suggest blowing up asteroids is not the way to go propellant being the current favourite and will add links later . However it seems that the immediate threat is actually space junk and non nuclear weapons of some kind could be useful in this regard.
Re 1 The statistic risk may be underestimated and is certainly debatable. The moon has a surface area of 38 million km2 while Earth is 12x as large with 500million km2. The moon has 5,185 craters of 20km + wide and 1 million 1km plus wide. https://lovethenightsky.com/many-craters-moon/ Given that the Earth has 12 x larger surface area + stronger gravity could we extrapolate to estimate that Earth has had 12 x as many hits or 60,000 catastrophic hits and 12 million very serious hits? Still long odds but reduces the 10km crater odds from 1 in 100M yrs to considerably less? Whichever is nearer there is a need for a space platform with some type of offensive ability but the concept of international co operation, using AI control systems and relinquishing National interest particularly if you have spent $billions to be leaders in the field is a really big ask. An intersting article and good read from 2,000 trying to put both the optimistic and pessimistic side of the argument/risk ... from page #3 " Even if a billion people are cooked by asteroids over a million years, he says, "The total number of people who will die in that time is in the trillions." The danger of dying from an impact, he says, is "comparable to flying an airplane, it's about the same risk." http://whyfiles.org/106asteroid/index.html
How will Asgardia bring China , Russia and USA together to co operate under an international organisation? The UN path is currently highly suspect given Trumps open critisism of the organisation. Make another toothless, unenforcable agreement/treaty which major powers ignore? We need a credible strategy for this and must realise that this is a decade/s long endeavour with no quick fix