Mar 4, 17 / Ari 07, 01 15:08 UTC

CHRONICLES - Asgardia is Raising Awareness of the Threat from Asteroids  

Hello Asgardians!

A new article has been posted to the Asgardia Chronicles talking about raising awareness of the threat of asteroids and hints at the plan Asgardia has for helping mitigate that threat.

https://asgardia.space/en/page/chronicles/Asteroid-Attack-Awareness

What do you think of some of the global initiatives and what Dr. Ashurbeyli has planned? How do you think it will be put into action? Let's hear your voice!

Kind regards,
Rebekah Berg, Lead Community Administrator, Asgardia

Mar 4, 17 / Ari 07, 01 20:36 UTC

I am wondering about the method we should use to neutralise dangerous asteroids.

Destroying them with an explosive device could result in the formation of a cloud of sharpnel which could still wreck damage upon Earth.

However we can't just stop an asteroid in its tract.

I submit my idea: generate a lateral force onto the asteroid so to deviate its trajectory. Several methods come to mind, not sure yet which would be the most effective though:

  • coat a side of the asteroid with ice. Upon contact with the sunlight, the ice would turn to steam, generating a force unto the asteroid and bending its trajectory sideways.

  • Attach a rocket onto the asteroid and bend its trajectory sideways.

  • Send an explosive device right next to the asteroid. The explosion would generate a "wind" which would apply a force on the asteroid and bend its trajectory sideways.

@Dirk Baeyens:

The asteroid belt is extremely far from Earth, it is difficult to monitor its content using Earth telescopes. Additionally, the asteroid belt is relatively empty. The total content mass of the asteroid belt is about as massive as 1/25 of the Moon.

The real threat is from periodic asteroids on their long, elliptical orbits, some of which come from the Oort Cloud all the way to Mercury and then back. Some asteroids there can be pretty big and nasty.

  Last edited by:  John Skieswanne (Asgardian)  on Mar 4, 17 / Ari 07, 01 20:43 UTC, Total number of edits: 1 time

Mar 5, 17 / Ari 08, 01 01:08 UTC

@Dirk Baeyens:

Good point. And chemical rockets provide thrust, right? If you could induce a reaction, the resulting energy would generate a force onto the asteroid, and even take away some (albeit tiny) solid volume away from the asteroid, too.

  Last edited by:  John Skieswanne (Asgardian)  on Mar 5, 17 / Ari 08, 01 01:12 UTC, Total number of edits: 1 time

Mar 5, 17 / Ari 08, 01 09:41 UTC

The trouble with asteroids and deflecting them with either or any solutions available to us is that we detect them too late for us to make any changes to their trajectory. Other than blowing them out of the sky with nukes we'd have very little (if any) time to make the arrangements to plan, let alone get the equipment to them before they impact. We'd have to suggest that in the meantime we use nukes (multiples of) to hopefully disintegrate them to smaller chunks, the first one hits then breaks up said asteroid, the following nukes vaporise the smaller chunks and the shockwave created by the subsequent detonations force the smaller pieces away or at least slows them down depending on their positions, hopefully any small debris would/could burn up on entry to the atmosphere, yes possibly a large piece could decimate an area but I'm afraid I'm the kind of person who'd rather accept a smaller disaster than a full one. Then after the initial danger has passed the technology to detect their flight path could be improved and the detection nets or systems increased. The ones we do know of right now are just begging for trial runs of various ideas, even if they pose no immediate threat to live on Earth, we could try solar sails, liquid boosters, asteroid nets, whatever the flavour of the month deterrent is. Besides all this is moot IMHO as we're more likely to blow ourselves up fighting over resources, faith or skin colour than worry about asteroids.

  Last edited by:  Hadden Bramham (Asgardian)  on Mar 5, 17 / Ari 08, 01 09:43 UTC, Total number of edits: 1 time
Reason: additional text

Mar 5, 17 / Ari 08, 01 13:04 UTC

@HaddenB

The Earth is relatively small. I remember the original model for Apophis' collision with Earth in 2036. Even then the asteroid wasn't going to hit the Earth at the center of its disc, at a perpendicular angle; but actually hit the Earth at the edge of its disc, almost skimming the earth's surface. (Later revisions of course let us discover that Apophis was going to miss us altogether).

My point is, asteroids usually miss the Earth, and those that do not well they don't need alot of trajectory adjustment to help them miss the Earth.

I still favour strapping a lateral rocket to steer the thing. The rocket doesn't have to be chemical - it'd be great if we could find a way to make even more powerful rockets.

I really oppose the idea of blowing it to bits. First of all, you'd need an incredibly large team of pilots (and a proportionally large amount of spacecrafts, and a kind of spacecraft whose propulsion system allows the craft to make tight swerves in the vacuum of space) to keep track and obliterate of all the resulting debris, and the pilots have to be real good given that the debris will be going at several Mach numbers and given that the pilot must differentiate between a debris and a fellow spacecraft. Additionally, there is no guarantee that a nuke on the asteroid will destroy the whole asteroid in the first place. And even if it did, and you decide to use nukes to destroy the resulting chuncks, you could end up nuking the Earth; the chuncks will be going at supersonic speeds towards Earth, the only stable shot you'll have at it is from behind and matching it speed. Which means your nuke will be aiming in the general direction of Earth. If you miss your shot you'll risk nuking Earth's surface.

I really favour the idea if steering the asteroid instead. Rockets could in theory be made highly powerful for that very purpose. Nuclear pulse rockets comes to mind:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclearpulsepropulsion

Plus, once the asteroid gets steered into a safe trajectory, you can always mine it or even perhaps colonise it.

  Last edited by:  John Skieswanne (Asgardian)  on Mar 5, 17 / Ari 08, 01 13:18 UTC, Total number of edits: 2 times

Mar 5, 17 / Ari 08, 01 14:08 UTC

Concerning the global initatives, more could be done sooner IMHO - but it's a start.

Concerning proposed plans from Dr Ashurebyli, I didn't really notice any. It's pretty difficult to comment on "satellite constellations" when there's no details concerning distances and function of constellations or the mechanism upon which this protection should operate.

The early detection of asteroids is certianly a problem, with only about 1800 objects being currently tracked with multiple "near misses" so far. This likely does not even represent 50% of the available threats in play currently - and more leave the Oort every day. As previously mentioned, the first time these are spotted it's commonly provided an incredibly short window of reaction time. Unfeasibly short. Also as previously mentioned, expanding sensor networks and better detection techniques is the obvious solution that can lead to greater reaction times being applicable. One would assume that this represents at least the first phase of these "satellite constellations". I seem to think we'd want birds just a little further out than the moon and once they're looking in more directions than they are not, starting to place some around sol at a similar orbital distance to Earth - A series of these in this belt should provide even more data - if that still doesn't provide enough sensor coverages then at a similar orbital belt to Mars should give much earlier detection times.

With regards to mitigation techniques then as previously mentioned, there's commonly not enough time to get a launch together, let alone line up a launch window. The obvious solution here is to have one ready to rock - and preferably already in orbit. If already in orbit the deployment time is drastically reduced, allowing for potentially earlier intercept. If you can get it there early enough then a nuke can be detonated before it hits. Rather than use the kinetic impact to reduce it's size, slow it by a few meter per second or nudge it to the left slightly - far enough out will mitigate a collision. If going for mass reduction multiple nukes would be required - after taking the larger rocks down in size(possibly requiring several nukes, one to split in three, three to hit them, 12 to hit that debris) setting a nuke off just in front of them could either vapourise them entirely or provide for more than enough deflective forces.

To assume there is enough time to attempt an earlier intercept (ie: most things we've already seen and are tracking) then to assume this can be done early enough we can begin to play with mitigation techniques. I agree heavily with "trial runs". For sake of the example, lets target 2017 DQ36, this has 8 opportunities to collide with Earth between 2021 and 2097, at about ½km radial it's a baby rock on the scale so perfect for playing with mitigation techniques, it's relatively low mass would allow for easier mitigations. With a Palmero scale of -3 then any failure in the attempt isn't likely to be overly hazardous. It's an ideal candidate.

An asteroid, even one as small as that, is unlikely to "stopped in it's tracks" as accurately pointed out previously - but nothing is static in space, and if you was to become, then everything else is still a hazzard as that is all moving. Luckily stopping it isn't required. All you need to do is slow it down(or speed it up, which can be easier depending where in it's orbital elipse it is) - when two moving objects have intercepting trajectories then adjusting the speed of one object should allow the other to clear the intercept zone so both these objects don't try to occupy the same space at the same time. Equally, if it's far enough away then adjusting it's heading by but 1° can over the length of it's arc provide for sufficient adjustments - but commonly you'll get the most overall effect for the minimal energy from adjusting velocity. And even more by doing it at the "right" time.

As for how to provide that course adjustment....

NASA have had some detailed studies on this. The tl:dr; of the matter is chemical explosives to obliterate are unlikley to be sufficient to make into small enough fragments, and would likely require embedding to stand a chance of fragmenting (but they was thinking a lot bigger than our example, we could feasibly blow something that small). Chemical explosives are unlikely to deliver sufficient kinetic energy to "displace". Nuclear explosives can deliver the yield, buried would provide a high fragmentation risk, as some large chunks are likely acellerated towards. The general consensus of the document was that it would be generally "better" and all around "easier" to detonate with some proximity in order to bounce more than break - almost like a gigantic game of pool, chipping it off into the corner pocket. Ofc asteroid composition and materials matter muchly. This sort of solution on a "gravel-type" asteroid is likely to make a serious mess and a lot of smaller problems.

For coating a single side with ice, and using sunlight to create "steam thrust" then it's unlikely to vent with any particular pressure, even over a wide surface area that low pressure is likely to be insufficient to provide suitable Delta-V and the largest effect would be adjusting it's center of gravity, which will cause(or more likely adjust) it's rotation. The same water in resevoirs - these could potentially be drilled into the face of the asteroid, or attached to surface - can then boil up and pressurise. Steam at pressure will give a lot more thrust from the same mass. Such systems are difficult to control. If the center of thrust doesn't balance center of mass then, depending how far off it is, it tends to push you in circles more than forwards and using Sol as thermal source you're limited in the directions you can apply thrust. Aiming is difficult, and requires a really early intercept.

A "salty chemical" is unlikely to compete with the cold of deep space - which is why the coolant loops on ISS use ammonia, it's harder to freeze that - Focus of a few lasers or microwave beams would be more reliable IMHO. Volumatic reduction is unlikely to be sufficient to be notable, unless the composition is mostly ice. Again applicable thrust is questionable, this is commonly delivered at pressure to provide speed. As is questionability to control how/where the thrust is applied.

Tethering chemical rockets and towing the asteroid could be considered viable to move something if it's hit far enough out, and you laid down thrust at the right point of it's orbital arc you could stand a chance of "steering" enough to avoid impacts. Several units may be required to stabilise rotation and prevent "yo-yo" or pendulem. I personally favour the likes of a net, for large solids and something resembling a wind sock for gravels, suspended between three or more units working in concert. Surface attachment would again require center of thrust to align center of mass to prevent spin. If far enough out then Ion propulsion systems can potentially provide a small impulse over a long period of time - and that tends to add up. If the EM-Drive is valid then this would be the most sensible type of application as it can continually output, and would possibly give rise to parking these problematic rocks for mining. Most "solutions" leave the problem there, in some form, they will be experienced again. At some point in time. Mitigation is obviously the primary goal, mining these to nothing is not an unworthy consideration as it would turn a problem into a solution.

"Bending it's trajectory sideways" is unlikely to be fuel efficient (Should get yourself a copy of KSP if you like this sort of thing, their orbital trajectory tool when you're plotting up manipulating orbits would demonstrate this concept visually, easily, and you can even play with various sized rocks that come close and building intercept systems. NASA chipped in some code especially for this). If you apply thrust just before the apoapsis - As far from center as it will reach - then the object is in theory travelling as slow as it will (naturally) and should require the least energy to result in adjustments, either way - but as it's just before it's "peak height" gravity is still slowing the object down as opposed to speeding it up so attempts to slow it are maximised. Conversly, just before the periapsis - The closest to center the orbit reaches - provides opportunity to have gravity assist in speeding up said object. If attempting to "go sideways" then at the periapsis/apoapsis provides the opportunity for the most effect(emphisis on the apoapsis). Attempts at other points is essentially wasting fuel, and without a propellantless system it's going to be difficult to achieve the required effect anywhere else, or take a lot of fuel to do so. Speeding up/slowing down gives you the most bang for your buck. When you're at the apoapsis then speeding up/slowing down should "push" the periapsis further away/closer to the body being orbited, whilst application at the periapsis should manipulate the distance of the apoapsis.

Solar sails are likely to be too low impulse to be viable for the larger percentage of examples, even with early intercept.

Mar 11, 17 / Ari 14, 01 14:55 UTC

For anyone outside the UK (or that does not use a proxy/VPN), you can watch the BBC Horizon Special from a few years ago.

The Truth About Meteors: A Horizon Special, 2012-2013.

VK Mirror https://vk.com/video116059113_456239063

Original BBC page http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01r6dys

(you may need a VK account to watch videos, but it is cleaner than facebook, so it is much nicer and much faster)